What's Driving US Higher Education Enrollment Trends in 2026

Enrollment at U.S. colleges and universities is shifting in ways that affect students, families and institutions alike. While recent National Student Clearinghouse data shows overall postsecondary enrollment up roughly 1% year over year, that topline number masks wide variation by institution type, region and student population. For many campuses, the pressure of demographic change and evolving student expectations is still mounting. 

At Cengage, the Market & Strategy Research team closely tracks higher education enrollment trends to understand what is changing beneath the headlines. Through ongoing research with faculty and academic leaders, the team examines how institutions are responding and where they are struggling to adapt. 

Pulling from his deep expertise and soon-to-be-released research on the enrollment challenge, Marco Krcatovich II, Senior Director of Market & Strategy Research at Cengage, shares his perspective on what’s driving enrollment change and what higher education leaders should be watching for next. Below is part one of this conversation. 

What are the latest overall enrollment trends in U.S. higher education? 

Since 2020, enrollment trends in higher education have shifted dramatically, reshaping both undergraduate enrollment and long-term institutional planning. The widely discussed enrollment cliff, a decline in the number of young, college-ready students, is already affecting some regions and campuses are responding to these challenges. To offset these declines, institutions are expanding access through initiatives such as free college programs, which help states grow their share of college-educated workers and reshape the future of higher education. 

What we see as a result is a slowing increase this year and all the indications that enrollment nationwide will start to decline in the future, although resembling less of a cliff and more like a gentle slope. 

However, from campus to campus, these changes can be dramatic and significant. In a recent study by our team, we talked with faculty and administrators about how they are adjusting to this shift in higher education enrollment. More than half said they were changing degree programs and nearly as many spoke of eliminating programs that were no longer relevant or showed low enrollment. Humanities and Social Sciences faculty were most likely to say their courses had been cut. On the other hand, a third of respondents are hiring more faculty to meet current demands and are expanding opportunities for short-term credentials and more online education.  Every campus has unique challenges ahead even if nationwide the story is one of gradual decline. 

How are different parts of the higher education market responding to change? 

Community colleges and smaller public universities are seeing growth in many areas, especially growth from dual enrollment programs, which allow high school students to earn college credit. Rising concerns about college costs and renewed interest in trade careers are also driving students toward vocational schools and two-year colleges, either directly after high school or later as working adults. 

At the same time, challenges remain. International student enrollment is declining, impacting graduate programs and fields such as computer science, while financial aid restrictions and state budget pressures are straining smaller campuses.  

What are the key differences between two-year and four-year institutions today? 

The trends I am tracking show two-year colleges experiencing modest enrollment growth, fueled by dual enrollment and affordability concerns. They attract students seeking career-focused programs and flexible pathways. 

In contrast, four-year universities overall face sharper declines in traditional undergraduate enrollment, particularly among international students, even as graduate enrollment trends remain comparatively strong in research-intensive institutions. These differences highlight how two-year versus four-year enrollment trends are reshaping the higher education landscape and how the experience at individual campuses can vary wildly by who they enroll and what headwinds they face.  

What role does online learning play in college enrollment trends? 

Access to online learning in higher education has become an expectation for most students. Before the pandemic, the share of students taking at least one online course was slowly rising. Since 2020, colleges have expanded online course offerings and improved quality, making them central to enrollment strategies. 

Online education increases access for students who work or have family obligations, allowing them to balance jobs with full-time study. This flexibility is expanding the pool of eligible students and driving college enrollment growth. When we talk to faculty and administrators, they point out that online offerings are a central part of their future enrollment strategy to meet students where they are.  

 

While national enrollment figures suggest modest growth, the reality on campuses is far more complex. As institutions adapt to shifting demographics, affordability concerns and changing student expectations, leaders must rethink long-standing assumptions about who their students are and how they are best served. 

In part two of this conversation, Marco will explore how technology, artificial intelligence and career readiness are shaping the next phase of enrollment strategy and what higher education leaders should consider as they plan for the years ahead.